Saturday, June 23, 2007

Harry Potter and the Profit Mongering Executives

3 years after the theatrical release of the movie based on the last harry potter book, the project to make a new potter film will be started. It will be released two years after that.

It will be contrived, not based on one of the existing books.

I suspect a prequel.

Thursday, June 21, 2007

Blockbuster with bluray and HDdvd pricing

Blockbuster recently announced they are going to carry only BluRay at most of their stores.

Prediction 1:
This will last for one year from today or less. (Lasting as defined as the point where they carry most new releases, as available, in their stores in both formats at most locations.)

Why?

Blockbuster must rent disks in the format of the players that consumers own.

Prediction 2:
Consumers will own twice as many (2 to 1) HDdvd players at this point next year than bluray players.

Why?

Prediction 3:
Black Friday 2007 (day after thanksgiving) will see the introduction of the $150 HD DVD Player. It will be feature poor, but will play HDdvds. For Christmas time, people will want HDdvd Players to hook to the new plasma and LCD tvs they've been buying for the past couple of seasons. The $149 price point will probably only be a special for Black Friday, but a $199 player will be common and available to all purchasers.

Why?

This pricing will allow HDdvd to gain a huge foothold in the market that BluRay will never recover from.

The HDdvd guys are going to be smarter than Sony and realize this fact. They will do their research and see that that $149 price point is killer and will get their technology adopted.

Why won't Sony fix this? Because just like Beta, Minidisc, UMD Movies and Memory Stick, BluRay is "better." Or more concisely, history says so.

Long Term Prediction 4:
In 3 years from now, HD dvd will be the clear winner vs. BluRay. The number of players will be 10 to 1 HDdvd to BluRay.